The Golden Hour Read Free

introductions. You’ve got the Secretary’s planning staff here, plus the heads of each of the major regional and functional offices.”
    Parker turned to the others. “Folks, this is Professor Judd Ryker from Amherst College.”
    Back to Judd. “Okay, Ryker. The floor is yours. Take three or four minutes to leave time for questions.”
    “I’ll try to make this quick. Thank you, Mr. Parker, for asking me to come here today.” Judd stood up for emphasis. “In emergency medicine, a trauma patient’s chances of survival are greatest if they receive professional care in the hospital within sixty minutes after a severe multisystem injury. This is known as the Golden Hour.”
    Judd scanned the room, hoping for hints of recognition. Nothing. He continued, “Although there is some debate about the precise length of time of the Golden Hour, the principle of rapid intervention in trauma cases is universally accepted. If you don’t get help very quickly, you die. It’s that simple.” Judd nodded, but still no reaction from the audience.
    “I believe we have found the same principle to apply to international political trauma. We can’t run experiments in a lab, but we can pick up patterns in the data. The numbers can tell us.” Pause.
My undergrads love that line.
    Judd waved his arms as he got more excited. “Using data over the past forty years, we studied two hundred thirty cases of political crisis in low- and middle-income countries. We found that the probability of resolution declines significantly over time. In fact, time is more dominant in the statistical analysis than ethnic cleavages, type of regime, or the other standard political variables.” Judd waited a moment, to give the crowd time to let that settle in.
Am I losing them?
    “Most interesting, the time-resolution correlation is not linear. In plain English, this means we have found clear tipping points in time. For the outbreak of a civil war, the critical period is about thirteen or fourteen days. After two weeks, the chances of a speedy resolution decline by more than half. Similarly, if an illegal seizure of power by the military is not reversed within about four days, the chances of reversal over the next year drop by eighty percent.” Judd paused for effect. “In other words, ladies and gentlemen, the Golden Hour for a coup d’état is just one hundred hours.”
    Satisfyingly, this led to murmuring and scribbling among the crowd.
    “I must stress that these results are still preliminary, and I have teams in Asia and Africa collecting additional data.”
Caveats. I have a reputation to protect.
    “Are you finding differences across regions? Is Africa different from south Asia, or are they all pretty much the same?” asked one of those seated at the table, without identifying himself.
    “No, we haven’t found any of the regional variables to be statistically significant,” responded Judd.
    “Did anything change with the end of the Cold War or 9/11?”
    “Good question. We haven’t broken the data into periods. We could try that. I just don’t know.”
    “What is driving the results on coups? How can you explain what’s so special about timing? I understand the idea of a Golden Hour, but why does it exist?”
    “We don’t really know. We can theorize that it probably has something to do with the dynamics of consolidating power after seizure. The coup makers must line up the rest of the security forces and maybe buy off parliament and other local political leaders before those loyal to the deposed president are able to react and countermove. It’s a race for influence. But these are just hypotheses.”
    “What about international intervention? Does it matter if an external force gets involved diplomatically?” asked one staffer.
    “Or militarily?” interjected another.
    “We don’t have classifications for intervention, so it’s not in there,” replied Judd. “The numbers can’t tell us. So, we don’t know. I guess we